COVID-19已席卷全球,并为大萧条以来的第一次,发达和新兴经济体同时陷入衰退。中欧和东欧国家正在准备迎接了有记录以来最尖锐的衰退,从被采取收费对国内需求和低迷的商业活动的外部冲击锁定措施面临热,造成流动性压力,违约的概率增大,收缩资产价值,取消订单,延迟付款。这些都必然会有在一般和东欧特别是对银行业产生重大影响。尽管该地区各国政府已经迅速实施行动计划和央行都在以前所未有的救济措施加强,这将是足以让银行漂浮?
在该地区的银行部门都设置为面临重大挑战,惠誉修改中东欧银行业的负面和几家银行已经大幅削减预算,2020年的前景虽然压缩净息差,手续费收入的下降,可能在交易income, credit losses across a vast array of businesses and sectors, and potential operational losses due to increased fraud and cyber‑attacks will undoubtedly erase a large part of CEE banks’ profits for the year, the increased COVID-19-related lending as well as the capital and liquidity buffers built after the global financial crisis in 2018 could be the silver lining to lessen the swells of the recession. However, the robustness of the system will be extensively tested in the coming months and it will depend on how soon the lockdowns are lifted, business activity is resumed, and consumer demand shows recovery.
艰难的时刻就在眼前了银行,但截至目前,他们有望在这场危机中发挥了至关重要的作用。难道这些银行有什么需要,以渡过难关,并且他们可以用这个动荡创造增长和变化的更好的机会?
对于我们的银行如何在中东欧地区现在正在受艾滋病影响的,包括对银行业指针和反思,并在后COVID-19世界的详细分析,请阅读我们的报告:COVID-19:评估在东欧银行的影响。